Wilton School Board Hears 10-Year Enrollment Predictions, with Budget Implications

With budget season approaching anew, the Board of Education heard the annual report on 10-year enrollment projections from one of its consultants on Thursday night, Oct. 24.

Noting that the numbers play a part in his planning, Wilton Public Schools Superintendent Kevin Smith also updated the board on his latest budget assumptions, which at this point project an increase of 5.89%.

“I can tell you, assure that, that’s not the budget you’re going to see,” he said, expecting to hear budget guidance from the Board of Finance next month, which may help determine the final number.

Smith also shared some details on the limited progress being made by the Town and School Needs Assessment/Priorities Committee (TSNAP) looking into town and school building repair and renovation priorities.

Meanwhile, Pat Gallagher, co-founder of MB Planning Group, LLC, provided three tiers of enrollment projections for the next 10 years — a low, medium, and high projection.

With 3,699 students currently enrolled in K-12, next year’s projections range from 3,682 to 3,734, with a medium estimate of 3,712. Over the next decade, the trend continues to move upward, and by the 2034-35 school year the projections span from 3,868 to 4,345 for students in K-12, with a medium estimate of 4,102 total K-12 students — a 10-year change of almost 11%.

“We always recommend the medium model … but the high and the low are provided as a planning tool,” Gallagher said.

“An important takeaway here is that all three of your models are showing some growth, although at different growth rates,” he said.

“Birth trends are really one of the most important demographic indicators that we track,” he said. “Like many of your peer communities, we’ve seen an uptick in births.”

“Home sales are really one of the most important indicators that we follow every day,” Gallagher also said, noting that while they’re still a little below pre-pandemic levels, Wilton’s market is doing better than some surrounding towns, especially those on the coast.

“The housing market’s the one thing we’re following closely. You guys haven’t seen the drop off in sales that some of your peer communities have seen,” he said, attributing it to more reasonably priced homes.

His presentation noted that the median single-family home in Wilton has gone from $695,000 in 2019 to $1.15 million, with condominium sale prices at record levels nearing $590,000.

Among the projection takeaways Gallagher cited in his slideshow, it was noted that the approved multi-family residential developments in Wilton bear tracking, as they will have an impact on projections going forward. 

He said the multi-family development at 141 Danbury Rd., which contains 173 units, will generate 37 students in K-12.

Another takeaway noted in the presentation was that over the first five years of projections, Miller-Driscoll, Cider Mill and Middlebrook Schools are projected to experience growth between 9% and 11%, while Wilton High School is projected to decline by 7%. Over the next five years after that, as growth slows at Miller-Driscoll, all the other schools will see an increase of 7-8%.

“This is one of my favorite moments … It’s just so well done and we just appreciate the clarity that it brings to our decision making,” BOE Chair Ruth DeLuca said of the presentation.

Because of an expected increase in the elementary grades, Smith is proposing to add at least two new staff members for kindergarten and grade four in next year’s budget.

“I’m proposing for certain that we recommend in the budget at least one additional FTE at Miller-Driscoll,” he said. 

While he said it was possible that they might need two new classroom teachers at Cider Mill, at this point he didn’t want to budget for both just based on the projections.

“I looked at the fourth grade numbers and I want to just watch them. I don’t want to suggest they’re overstated, but I think they might be overstated,” he said.

“So I want to plan for one and then set some money aside in the salary line in case we need to add a second one, but I don’t want to make that decision until we know we’re gonna need it, which will probably be some time in June or July of next year,” Smith said.

The medium-line projection for kindergarten next year is a rise from the current 246 students to 252, and then to 259 in the 2026-27 school year.

The medium-line projection for 4th grade next year is a rise from the current 290 students to 304, and then down to 274 in the 2026-27 school year.

Overall, Miller-Driscoll, which currently has 845 students, is projected to rise to 873 next year, and then to 882 for the 2026-27 school year.

Cider Mill, which currently has 834 students, is projected to rise to 869 next year, and then to 874 for the 2026-27 school year.

Middlebrook, which currently has 860 students, is projected to decline to 833 next year, then rebound to 869 in the 2026-27 school year.

WHS, which currently has 1,244 students, is projected to decline to 1,221 next year, then go down to 1,204 in the 2026-27 school year.

Building Needs Implications

In relation to the school’s capital project priorities, which center on a costly panoply of building repairs and upgrades facing the town, Smith shared a bit about the progress of the TSNAP Committee.

“The committee hasn’t voted on what the actual priorities are on this list,” he said, referencing a project list prepared by the Department of Public Works that includes several important school concerns.

“As far as I’m concerned, and I think you’ll agree with me, the roofing project is number one,” Smith said, referencing a $2 million repair project for the WHS library.

“I don’t think there’s a debate about that from anybody,” he said. “Every time it rains our skylights here leak. That’s gotta get fixed.”

“And the second, I think also there’s no debate about, the HVAC system at Cider Mill’s gotta be replaced,” he said, with the project estimated at just over $1.5 million.

While the Board of Selectmen is looking to the TSNAP committee to present recommendations on how it would prioritize these and additional projects needed throughout town, its members are yet to come to consensus on the matter.

“It’s taken a while to get organized,” said Smith, who sits on the committee along with representatives from the Boards of Finance and Selectmen, town employees, and others.

He noted that there were a lot of different interests involved, and also said the scope of the committee’s work has expanded.

“It’s been an interesting conversation,” he said.

The 10-Year Enrollment Projections are available online.