Expert: “Put Away the Myth that New Housing Drives Education Costs and Taxes” — What Wilton Can Learn from CT Demographics and Trends

“It is time to put away the myth that new housing drives education costs and taxes,” Poland said.

The agenda for tonight’s (June 24) Planning and Zoning Commission meeting highlights a June 17 seminar held by the Naugatuck Valley Council of Governments (NVCOG) on the subject of housing and school enrollments. (Note: Wilton belongs to the Western Connecticut Council of Governments, or WestCOG.)

In anticipation of the discussion, GOOD Morning Wilton reviewed the recorded seminar and slide presentation, which delves into the data on Connecticut’s changing demographics and housing stock — and the potential fiscal impact on local municipalities.

Dr. Donald Poland, a planning consultant with 30 years of experience, led the hour-long seminar in which he strongly refuted some commonly-held perceptions — including the notion that new multifamily housing will significantly increase school enrollment or be a fiscal burden on a municipality.

Changing Demographics

Poland cited statistics that show Connecticut has 1,433,635 occupied households and 512,652 school enrollments, or 0.357 enrollments per household.

“That [0.357] number alone destroys this idea that we’re going to get two or more students, or even one or more student, per housing unit developed,” Poland said.

“There’s this assumption that all new housing units will produce two or more school-age children, and it’s assumed that that is the driver of education costs [and] fiscal burden on a municipality,” Poland said, when available data often show that is not the case.

Poland believes that flawed assumption is often based on the collective memory of a by-gone era. He used his hometown of Wethersfield, CT to illustrate his point. In 1976, the 34 single-family homes in the neighborhood where Poland grew up had 73 students enrolled — an average of 2.14 students per household. In 2024, there were just 14 students in those homes, or 0.41 per household — similar to the current state average.

Poland says population statistics reflect the fact that younger generations are marrying later and having fewer children than their baby-boomer predecessors. In fact, current birthrates are below the population replacement threshold — and even lower in Connecticut compared to the U.S. as a whole.

“Look what happened to the population [under age 18],” Poland said, referring to the statewide 10% decline between 2010 and 2020. “We are shedding young people over that decade. That is [due to] this declining fertility rate in Connecticut.”

Poland’s analysis of changing household types and sizes reflects a similar shift. In 1970, married couples with children accounted for 40% of all households. By 2012, that proportion was just under 20%.

In contrast, by 2012, the majority of all households (61%) had become 1- or 2-person households.

The trend toward fewer children isn’t always as evident in more affluent communities.

“As you go up in income, you typically see a decline in fertility rates and decline in children,” Poland said. “But that being said, when you start overlaying that demographic and economic data onto a housing market, you will start to find that your four and five bedroom houses are actually producing the highest number of school enrollments. That’s because households that can afford a million-dollar house can also afford to have two or three children.”

“72% of multifamily housing has very little chance of generating any meaningful [student] enrollments,” Poland said. “Do you want to know where your enrollments are coming from? It’s the four-or-more-person households that are owner occupied.” Dr. Donald Poland

Poland also noted that “the higher quality your education system is, the more likely that housing stock is to attract a household with children.”

“Every community is different and has a degree of uniqueness in their circumstances,” Poland acknowledged. “But that being said, these large demographic trends weigh heavily on all of our communities.”

“Ultimately, changing demographics are changing the way we live, we work, we socialize, we recreate, how we consume and even the homes we buy or rent,” Poland said, creating “pent-up demand in the housing market for those new household formations.”

New/Multifamily Housing and School Enrollment

Poland shared several case studies of Connecticut municipalities, including Granby, which — like Wilton — has predominantly single-family homes.

Granby is “overwhelmingly owner occupied — it’s 84% three or more bedrooms,” Poland said. “That’s a housing stock built for families with children, but [Granby is] losing children. Why? Because we don’t have 40% of the households being married couples with children any more.”

Granby lost 610 students over a 10-year period, despite adding 103 new housing units in the same period. (Like Granby, Wilton’s population declined by 619 children between the 2010 and 2020 Census.)

“Those housing units are big, they’re expensive, and they’re outside the reach of the 20- and 30-something year-olds… and therefore their enrollments are collapsing,” Poland continued. “Their existing housing stock is mostly designed for families with school-aged children. They’d do great if it was 1976 again, but they struggle today, in 2024.”

Poland refuted the notion that multifamily housing significantly increases the school-age population. Statewide, the vast majority of rental units are one- or two-person households.

“Seventy-two percent of multifamily housing has very little chance of generating any meaningful [student] enrollments,” Poland said. “Do you want to know where your enrollments are coming from? It’s the four-or-more-person households that are owner occupied.”

Poland highlighted data from South Windsor — one of the few towns in Connecticut that has not had a declining child population — as another case in point.

Two new multifamily developments (278 units) in South Windsor have generated less than one enrolled student for every five units — far fewer than the 88 new single-family homes in the town, which average roughly one new student each.

Another case study from Ellington showed that 1,862 new multifamily housing units accounted for 295 school enrollments, or 0.158 students per unit.

But in addition to the low number of new students, Poland also emphasized the proportionately higher tax revenue from the multifamily units compared to the single-family homes.

“Multifamily is fiscally positive,” Poland stated. “Do the math. If your [municipality is] getting $10,000 per unit on a single-family and $5,000 per unit on a multifamily, your five multifamily units produce $25,000 in taxes for one student versus the single family produces $10,000 in taxes.”

“It is time to put away the myth that new housing drives education costs and taxes,” Poland said.

“At the end of the day, my biggest concern is the opposition to multifamily, as if it’s going to bust the school system. It is the product that generates the least amount of enrollments,” Poland said, arguing that the higher tax revenue from multifamily developments can actually help offset municipal and school budget pressures.

“We’ve created a housing stock that doesn’t meet our population needs. I think we need a greater diversity in housing,” Poland said. “My argument is you can’t stop it. You have to embrace it.”