I have some much better news to share related to this week’s (May 21-27) forecast, which is that most of the week will feature warmer and sunnier weather, unlike last week. The passage of a cold front Sunday night will kick off a very nice stretch of weather for the week ahead, although there are still a couple of chances for rain. It will definitely not be a wet and cloudy week like last week, however.
Monday, May 21: On Monday, expect sunshine and a few high clouds paired with low humidity and a high temperature in the mid 70s. Perfect, comfortable weather to spend time outside.
Tuesday, May 22: On Tuesday, a weak area of lower pressure will pass through the Mid-Atlantic, so a few showers may slide into Connecticut associated with the northern periphery of the moisture, especially in the morning. Otherwise, it will be a partly cloudy and cooler day with high temperatures in the mid 60s.
Wednesday, May 23: Following that brief cooler hurdle will be an amazing stretch of weather for the remainder of the work week. On Wednesday, expect mostly sunny skies paired with a high temperature in the mid 70s. There will be an area of moderate to high instability that streams into Connecticut late in the day, so that sunshine and instability may spark a stray thunderstorm.
Thursday, May 24: Thursday and Friday will be the two best days of the week. On Thursday, expect abundant sunshine. Temperatures will max out in the mid 70s, although there is a northwesterly flow and, depending on where the lower heights in the atmosphere sets up (which looks to be east of New England), that may hold temperatures down a bit and even lead to the chance for a shower.
Friday, May 25: On Friday, I am super confident it will be beautiful and dry. What better way to end the week with sunny skies, fairly low humidity values, a light wind, and a high temperature in the low 80s. This weather will be perfect to have lunch and dinner outside. It will also be more bearable to be outside this week because tree pollen counts won’t be too high following the very wet weather last week and the fact that the leaves on the trees are fully grown.
Saturday, May 26: On Saturday, high pressure is expected to remain in control with mostly sunny skies and a high temperature in the mid 70s. As you know, by this time period the forecast confidence drops. The European model highlights the possibility for the high temperature to be anywhere between 65 and 85 degrees on Saturday, and that spread grows even further by about 10 degrees on Sunday.
Sunday, May 27: Speaking of Sunday, moisture will begin to stream in from the South, where a potential tropical cyclone may actually threaten the eastern Gulf Coast of the United States. This added moisture and lift in the atmosphere may allow for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms. Based on the upper-level setup that is expected to develop next weekend, that may put us back into a period of wet, cloudy, and unsettled weather beginning around Sunday and continuing through at least the start of the following week. The combination of an upper-level low near the Gulf Coast, a strong high pressure off the East Coast, and deep tropical moisture over the Caribbean Sea does not make for pretty weather, which is exactly what happened last week.
With all of that in mind, this coming weekend is the unofficial start to summer, Memorial Day Weekend. If I were to predict the best day of weather this far out, Saturday will be the nicest one while Sunday and Monday feature the chance for rain. Stay tuned for additional details as confidence increases. Maybe the weekend won’t turn out so bad.
Jackson Dill is a Wilton High School senior who started the website, Jackson’s Weather. His 7-day forecast will appear each Monday on GOOD Morning Wilton. Visit Jackson’s Weather to find out any changes in the forecast. You can also follow him on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram for around-the-clock updates.