COVID-19 Update Oct. 20: Wilton Now at 276 Cases–Up 8 Cases in 11 Days

GOOD Morning Wilton‘s last COVID-19 Update was on Oct. 9, with case numbers reported by the State Department of Public Health as of Oct. 7. At the time, Wilton had recorded a total of 268 cases since the start of the pandemic. Monday, Oct. 19, the DPH reported Wilton’s total positive cases (as of Oct. 18) had reached 276–adding eight (8) cases in just 11 days.

Looking at it another way, the last seven cases have been added in the last week alone, including a four-case jump from Thursday, Oct. 14 to Friday, Oct. 15.

Day by day, here’s how Wilton’s case numbers have increased since Oct. 8:

Oct. 8:  268
Oct. 11:  269
Oct. 12:  269
Oct. 13:  269
Oct. 14:  270
Oct. 15:  274
Oct. 18:  276

Statewide numbers

Wilton’s increases come as Connecticut is starting to see higher numbers statewide, most alarmingly in the southeastern part of the state.

New London County has 27.6 new cases/100,000, compared to Fairfield County at 9.3 new cases daily/100,000.

At his briefing on Monday afternoon, Gov. Ned Lamont said that the positivity rate for the state was 1.7%, which he said is “not a good number, but not a number that is spiking up, at least over the last three days.” He also compared it to the positivity rate for the United States overall, which is at 5.3%.

[Note:  According to Covid Act Now, the state’s 7-day rolling positivity rate was 2.9%, as of Oct. 16.]

He noted that CT has one of the lowest infection rates in the country, and compared how the state is doing to those at the higher end of the scale, including Nevada and South Dakota at over 35%.

“It just gives you an idea of how extreme this can be if we don’t maintain our guard,” Lamont said. Along those lines, he also warned against what he called “pandemic fatigue.”

Connecticut is doing a significant amount of testing, and as a result, is catching many positives of both symptomatic and asymptomatic cases.

“We’re testing per capita far more than most other states, so we’re going to identify a higher percentage of the cases out there, both symptomatic and asymptomatic–which is a good thing, because you can act on that; you can have people isolate, you can do contact tracing. That’s how we stop the spread of COVID,” explained Josh Geballe, the state’s Chief Operating Officer, at Monday’s briefing.

But, that impacts the numbers being reported, of course.

“But, we have seen the positivity rate go up as well. So typically as testing is increased you want to see the positivity rate go down, we’ve seen it go up a little bit. So there’s no question that we are seeing more spread in the community, that’s why we need to stay the course–keep testing aggressively, contact trace, quarantine, and isolate,” Geballe added.

The number of hospitalized patients in Connecticut has now risen to 195, an increase of 11 patients over the weekend. There were also 1,191 new COVID-19-positive cases diagnosed over the weekend. The state crossed a threshold this weekend, passing 2 million tests (2,037,017) and 62,830 positive cases overall.

There will be some changes to the way Connecticut and its neighboring states (including NY, NJ and RI) plan to proceed with the states on the travel advisory list. Rather than drawing a line at states that either have 10 cases for every 100,000 residents OR 10%-plus positivity rate, the cutoff will now be states that have 10 cases/100,000 AND 5%-plus positivity rate. That drops the number of states on the travel advisory list from over 40 to 33, and Lamont said his administration will be more strict about enforcing that advisory.

Those changes should go into effect “in the next day or two,” according to the governor.

What the changes also do is save CT from having to include itself on the travel advisory list; the state now stands at 11.2 cases/100,000. (The national average is 17.1 cases/100,000.)

In addition, Lamont reinforced the “strong encouragement” to CT residents to limit travel both domestically or internationally. “Stay close to home this holiday season, for Thanksgiving … We’ll be a lot safer for it,” he said.

Lamont did note that his administration continues to work closely with New Jersey and New York so that the three states will continue to partner–and allow their residents to travel across their borders without imposing restrictions.

3 COMMENTS

  1. To me, cases are like hits in baseball: indicative of a POSSIBLE influencer on the outcome but runs are the real metric that are measures of success or failure.

    The root word “case” is mentioned 19 times in this article.
    The root word “death” is mentioned 0 times.

    19 “hits” but how many runs?

    Accordingly, fine to report “hits” but how many deaths aka “runs” are being reported?

    How about ICU occupancy and ventilator capacity rates which like “cases” are indicative of larger issues, but surely was a critical metric that was once measured. Thanks, Kevin

    • ‘Cases’ are not insignificant, nor are they all simply comparable to a 2-week bad cold. There are many patients dealing with ongoing COVID-related complications–cardiac, neurological, respiratory–and not enough is yet known about the virus’ longer-term effect. Hospitalizations are on the rise (reported in the story), and significantly so in Fairfield County. Changes in case numbers are a good indicator of where behavior needs to be strengthened and awareness raised, especially as the country follows (again) other countries where outbreaks are spiking dangerously (see Europe). ‘Cases’ still have an impact on healthcare costs, employment and the economy. BTW in the state over the weekend, there were 12 new deaths. Total since the start of the pandemic: 4,554.

  2. Maybe it’s me but there is some misunderstanding. Where did I say “Cases are not insignificant nor comparable to a 2 week cold?” Furthermore, I realize there are some with ongoing complications, in some cases comorbidities – but how many is “many”? Hospitalization on the rise? Then what are the trends? How long are sick with Covid staying? What is the ventilator occupancy rate at Norwalk Hospital and what percent are Wilton folks?
    I find it ironic no one is actively reporting this gem: https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_deathsper100k Connecticut has the 4th worse death rate per 100,000 people. If all of Connecticut’s tactics are working, why are 46 states doing better than we are on THIS death metric? Why isn’t Lamont being grilled about this? Ah.. maybe just “runs” aka cases matter….?

    My point is the media and the government is overly and narrowly focused on cases, cases, cases – I have Case Update Fatigue and frankly only read the reports every 10 days or so. No one is digging into the OTHER data points to get a full picture. That is my point about runs and yes – to continue the baseball analogy, what about the pitching, morale, and overall condition of the team?

    In addition, that Wilton Case number needs to be clarified. A base number should be given then an incremental number each day which in this period, is below single digits per day. Is a positive test a case? Are these active cases where the 276 are all in quarantine or care or the ICU or asymptomatic/symptomatic or? To me, 268 to 276 over a 10 day period, on the surface, is a very flat curve – an increase of less than 1 case per day. Wasn’t “flattening the curve” a key metric for this crisis? Has anyone applied “aging” methodology to the cases, as is done in Accounts Receivable to determine the actual risk? How many of the 276 have been sick and for how long? How are the tail ends of the curves being analyzed? Or is it 276 incremental cases on the 18th? If so, LORD that is massive. Rather, I think the 276 it is a RUNNING cumulative case total since Covid began.

    If nothing else, with the above aside and without rose colored glasses on, wasn’t the “Good” in Good Morning Wilton supposed to be Good News/events/communications? Based on what I understand to be total cases means: 276/18,400 residents translates to 99.985% of Wilton residents do NOT have a case of Covid. Why isn’t that percent a “good” headline at GOOD Morning Wilton? What is it that the media doesn’t want us to know?

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